To explore the predictive values of serum connective tissue growth factor (CTGF), transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) and matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2) levels on renal interstitial fibrosis in diabetes nephropathy.

172 patients with diabetes nephropathy admitted to our hospital from January 2017 to February 2019 were included as the research group, and 150 healthy persons who received physical examination in our hospital during the same period were included as the control group. The levels of serum CTGF, TGF-β1, and MMP2 in the two groups were detected and compared. Follow-up lasted for three years, and the patients in the research group were further divided into occurrence group and non-occurrence group according to the situation of renal interstitial fibrosis. The relationships between serum CTGF, TGF-β1 and MMP2 levels and renal interstitial fibrosis in diabetes nephropathy were analyzed with logistic regression method. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive values of serum CTGF, TGF-β1, and MMP2 levels on renal interstitial fibrosis in diabetes nephropathy.

The incidence of renal interstitial fibrosis was 39.53%. The levels of serum CTGF and TGF-β1 in the occurrence group were higher than those in the non-occurrence group (P< 0.05), and the level of serum MMP2 was lower than that in the non-occurrence group (P< 0.05). Age≥60 years, hypertension, urinary microalbumin / creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥3.12 mg/mmol, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥8.38%, serum creatinine (Scr) ≥143.78 μmol/L, serum CTGF≥93.99 ng/L, and TGF-β1≥80.67 μg/L, were risk factors for the renal interstitial fibrosis in diabetes nephropathy (P<0.05), while serum MMP2>99.03 μg/L was the protective factor (P<0.05). The sensitivity, specificity, and area under curve (AUC) of combined prediction of serum CTGF, TGF-β1, and MMP2 levels were 95.59%, 78.85%, and 0.943, respectively. The sensitivity and AUC of combined prediction were higher than those of single prediction (P< 0.05), while there was no significant difference between the combined prediction and the single prediction in the specificity (P> 0.05).

The three indexes of CTGF, TGF-β1, and MMP2 were all the influencing factors of renal interstitial fibrosis in diabetes nephropathy, suggesting that they may have a certain predictive value for the occurrence of renal interstitial fibrosis. Their combined prediction value was higher than that of a single index.